WP 8: Environmental evaluation
Targets
Lead Contractor
Lead Partners
Task 8.1
Task 8.2
Task 8.3
Task 8.4
Targets
Workpackage 8 is concerned with the external forcings that
drive ecological change in the arctic-alpine zone and relates to
the Water Framework Directive and to EU, UNECE and national
policies on transboundary air pollution. In this workpackage we
will use our databases to assess the severity and extent of the
impacts of transboundary air pollutants both on mountain lake
ecosystems, and, by extension, on mountain ecosystems in
general.
Task 8.1.: Sulphur and nitrogen deposition
Mountain lake ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to the
effects of acid deposition. Not only are deposition fluxes high
and can be enhanced at high altitude but also the relatively thin
soils in mountain lake catchments have little ability to retain
sulphate and nitrate, and lakes can suffer from severe episodic
pollution at the time of spring snow and ice melt. Consequently we
will:
-
Use a combination of steady-state, mass balance and
catchment models to establish for each mountain region the
population of lakes exceeding the critical load, and produce maps
of critical loads and critical load exceedance for each mountain
Lake District in Europe
-
Use the MAGIC model to test
responses to the different S and N emission reduction scenarios
proposed by the EU.
-
Use data from representative monitoring stations and
sediment records to assess evidence for recovery from
acidification.
-
Assess the extent to which the specific inclusion of
critical load exceedances from sensitive mountain lakes influences
the currently adopted emission abatement targets for EU member
states (see WP 9).
Task 8.2.: Toxic trace metals and persistent organic pollutants
In contrast to acidic compounds much less is known about the
distribution and fate of these substances in the mountain
environment. Consequently we will develop a methodology for
assessing critical load exceedance values for metals and POPs in
mountain regions and use data from WP
3, WP 5 and WP 6, including our knowledge of the
behaviour of radionuclides, to
-
estimate baseline or reference concentrations of trace
metals and naturally occurring organic compounds in the water
column, sediments and in fish tissue
-
model and map contemporary levels of these pollutants for
sites within the Lake Districts across Europe
-
calculate and map the difference between reference and
contemporary concentration values as a measure of
exceedance
-
use models and on site monitoring at representative sites
to derive a relationship between water column, sediment and fish
concentrations and the deposition of trace metals and trace
organics
-
map critical load exceedances for a range of trace metals
and trace organics across Europe
-
validate the results using observations at independent
sites
Task 8.3.: Climate change
In addition to the impact of air pollutants, mountain lakes
have been significantly influenced over recent decades by rising
temperatures and other climate changes. However, it is not clear
how much of the climate change at any site is due to greenhouse
gas forcing and how much to natural factors such as the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Moreover, because of the inherent
natural variability of climate it is difficult to establish simple
reference values. On the other hand we have excellent long term
meteorological records in Europe and we have robust models for
establishing past temperature variations over the last 200 years
even in remote mountain regions, while detailed weather patterns
can be established from climate re-analysis assimilations for the
last 40 years. Consequently we will
-
calculate and map
changes in air temperature for alpine regions throughout Europe
-
conduct empirical investigations into the relationship
between air temperature, ice cover and surface water temperature
based on already available long-term data on air temperature and
lake ice cover and the results of the water temperature
measurements of WP 1
-
map inter-annual changes in windflow and circulation
patterns in Europe since the 1950s
-
assess how daily weather patterns have changed in mountain
regions since the 1950s
-
assess the extent to which the observed climate variations
in the different regions can be explained by different forcing
mechanisms
Task 8.4.: Combining climate change and changes in pollutant loading
Whilst we have good knowledge and promising models for the
impact of individual pollutants and climate change on the
functioning of remote mountain lakes, we have far less
understanding of how lakes respond to combined stresses. Without
such understanding it is difficult to generate the process-based
models that are needed for scenario testing. Future research
projects are needed fully to address this problem, but here we
will begin by
-
comparing inter-annual changes in atmospheric pollutant
loading with year by year changes in wind patterns and
temperature
-
using multivariate statistical analyses to explore the
relative importance of geography, climate and pollution in
explaining the between site variation in lake biology
-
organising a workshop with relevant national
stakeholders to discuss how to use monitoring techniques to
identify and explain change, and detect early warning signals
Lead Contractor
-
UIBK-IZL - University of
Innsbruck, Institute of Zoology & Limnology, Austria
Lead Partners
-
ECRC-UCL - Environmental
Change Research Centre, University College London, UK
-
UB-DE - Ecology Department, University of Barcelona, Spain
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EAWAG - Department of
Environmental Physics, Eidgenoessische Anstalt fur
Wasserversorgung, Abwasserreinigung und Gewaesserschutz (EAWAG),
Dubendorf, Switzerland
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